Thank goodness we had a guide with us!

Today started out as a beautiful blue-sky Monday morning.

But by this afternoon I realized it was really a black day.  Or perhaps a black & blue day?

The bailout plan went down to defeat, as did the stock market. Shock waves are circulating.  For many, it’s a day of profound uncertainty. Insecurity. Doubt. Fear.

Our economy is certainly on a wild ride right now. It reminds me of the white water rafting trip we took last week, out on the Rio Grande. I’ll tell you now — whitewater rafting seemed a whole lot safer!

On the rafting trip, our guide was in control, and knew exactly what he was doing. He’d calmly give instructions as we approached a set of rapids. “Everybody ahead 3 … Ahead 2 more… Now all back hard!” Before you knew it, we’d successfully twisted & turned & navigated another rapid. After a few of those, we all had complete confidence in him.
- - The difference with the economy is that we don’t know who’s in charge. It’s like our guide has fallen out of the boat, and we’re left with us beginners trying to get through the rapids. People mean well, but nobody has the expertise.  Some are doing “ahead 3″ while others are doing “back hard”, and the net result is that we’re not navigating anything - we’re just going as the rapids take us.

In the safety talk before the rafting trip, they showed us the line they can throw if you fall out of the boat. They also said it rarely works, so if you fall out, plan to take care of yourself - don’t count on getting a lifeline.
- - Gee, that seems a lot like this economic situation. The big guys may get lifelines, but us normal people are on our own.

If you fall out of the boat in the rapids, the advice is (a) don’t panic, and (b) lie on your back and float downstream feet first, using your feet to fend off the rocks.
- - OK, we’re trying, but floating was a lot easier when we learned it back in a swimming pool. It’s a whole different story when you’re shooting through the rapids, trying to see ahead enough to fend off those rocks, absorbing various bumps & bruises, and trying to keep your head above water.  And the “don’t panic” advice is easier said than done!

Once you reach calm water, turn over and swim aggressively toward the boat.
- - OK, so economically speaking, where’s the calm water? When will we get there? Since our guide fell out of the boat, none of us have a clue.

Then there are the experts, who can shoot the rapids in their little kayaks.  No need for a guide, they’re having a great old time.
- - These are the people who did really well today, talking about how much $ they made short selling as the market plummeted.

The rest of us are back here floundering - either in the boat, arguing about which way to paddle as we bounce off the rocks, or floating downstream on our own, fending off with our feet, and trying not to panic.

I really wish our guide was back!

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We were rafting as part of our Santa Fe & Taos tour, and it was a lot of fun!  Santa Fe is a lovely city with a unique atmosphere, and there’s a lot more in New Mexico, too.  Geez, I wish I was still out there in the high desert, blissfully unaware of the stock market news!